Y2K - What's the big deal?
By Staff Writer, Crystal Owings

If you haven't heard of the 'Millennium Bug' yet, let me give you a brief overview.  Basically about 40 years ago when they first began building computer chips, space was a BIG issue.  Memory was very expensive and very large.  Programers decided to save space by using only the last two digits of the year, the same way they had done with shorthand for years, thus 1962 would be only 62 and so on.  Every time they needed to enter a date in a line of code, they used this same system. 

What has that got to do with anything?  Well, there are four basic groups of computers.  Personal computers, business or midrange computers, and mainframes are the most well known, but there is another group, embedded systems.  These are the computer chips that control and guide almost all of our technology.  Even things that don't appear date sensitive can have abbreviated dates in there code.   When the new year rolls around, every chip that is date sensitive will turn the clock over to 00.  The problem is that 99 + 1 cannot equal 0.  So What!?!  It seems like such an inconsequential thing, but it is expected to cause some of the computer technology to either not work properly, or quit functioning altogether.  It is estimated that there are nearly 70 billion embedded systems in everything from your coffee maker, to a nuclear weapon.  Many of those systems are not going to do any harm if they malfunction, but some could be vital, such as a pacemaker or a computer guided aircraft.

The Quick Fix

Many people who have known about the problem for some time, including myself,  have not worried about it because we all expected to be able to fix it in time.  I never worried too much about it.  We have a Macintosh, and they are completely Y2K compliant.  Recently I have had an opportunity to read up on it however, and what I learned was eye opening to say the least.  We have the technology to fix the problem, what we don't have is the time and people to do it.  Consider this analogy I found in Shaunti Christine Feldhahn's book "Y2k the Millenium Bug".  " In a nutshell, the Year 2000 quandary is this: it's a relatively simple problem, with a relatively easy fix but an overwhelming magnitude.  Fixing the Year 2000 problem is no longer a technical problem; it's a resource problem.  And that is precisely why it has become a problem of such intense concern.  Jim Lord provides a good analogy:

    Imagine that under your sink you have two straight pipes that are connected by a simple joint, and the pipes are leaking because the joint is broken.  You call a plumber or buy a joint and a wrench, and replace the defective part.  Simple problem; easy solution.  This in many ways is like Y2K; it's a simple problem, easy solution.  It really is.
    But now imagine that you find out that there is something wrong with some percentage of all plumbing joints that have ever been manufactured, all over the world.  And most of these defects will cause leaks or breaks in the plumbing to which they are attached.  Problem is, you don't know which ones are defective;  you have to examine every pipe joint in the world, fix the ones that are defective, and then test the plumbing to make sure you fixed it right.  Suddenly you don't have a plumbing problem; you have a resource problem.  There just aren't enough plumbers or wrenches to go around, and there is an enormous backlog on replacement parts, of course.
    Not to mention that many of these pipe joints are hard to find, and in obscure places.  You can't just stop with your sink; there's a pipe in your furnace, in the back of your refrigerator, and in your car.  They are embedded in the walls of skyscrapers, hidden  on locomotives, buried deep under the sea in oil pumps, and up in space on satellites.
    Now you see--simple problem, relatively easy fix, overwhelming magnitude.  And we just don't have the resources or the time to get it done.

This analogy should actually be carried further.  Imagine that after much aggravation, many months, and lots of money, you've found all these hidden pipes in your house and your car, figured out which ones will break, waited months for the replacement parts, and fixed the defective joints.  You dust off your hands and congratulate yourself that you are finally finished.  Then you turn on the tap to get a drink...and no water comes out.  Not only that, but suddenly your lights go dark.  What's happening?

Well, you may have been finished with your repairs, but the water utility up the street wasn't.  They had too many pipes, and not enough repairmen, so there was a break in the plumbing a couple of miles upstream from your house.  And because of a similar break in the plumbing at the hydroelectric station, there was no longer water generated electricity for your town and your house."  That is exactly what the Year 2000 problem is.  Programers are working, and working hard.  But there just aren't enough to go around.  In 1998 a study by the Information Technology Association of America the U.S. already had 350,000 unfilled job vacancies for computer scientists and repairmen.  It is very much the same in other industrialized nations.  And the job takes time, first they have to scan billions of lines of code to find any possible date sensitive material.  That alone is excessively time consuming.  Then they must try to fix every single one they find, and test it to make sure that they have caught all of the bugs. And they have an absolutely unforgiving, unmoveable deadline for completion.

We Are Overreacting-

It may still seem that there is not much of a crisis here, but consider the following comments-

Dr. Bill Merrell, the vice president or the Southern Baptist Convention's Executive Committee notes:
"It is normally the other way around.  Usually, people who know more about a problem are less perturbed because they understand the real situation and are comforted by the knowledge.  With Y2K, however, the more they know, the more they have reason for deep concern."

Ernest Patrikis in his testimony before the U.S. Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem said:
"My discussions with other (business and government Y2K leaders) have convinced me that successful efforts to address the Y2K problem will be dependent on the credibility of those calling for action.  Those of us who are seriously engaged and concerned need to be able to persuade others of the need to take appropriate actions promptly.  It would be unfortunate if general perceptions of the Y2K problem are driven primarily by unofficial commentators who's rhetoric is seen to exceed the facts on which it is based, and therefore easily dismissed."---'Given the sheer number of organizations that are potentially at risk, it is inevitable that Y2K-related disruptions will occur.  Today it would be impossible to predict the precise nature of these disruptions.  However, we do know that financial markets have in the past survived many other serious disruptions."

Capers Jones, chairman of Software Productivity Research, says:
"Because this problem is embedded in millions of aging software applications, the costs of fixing the 'Year 2000 problem' appear to constitute the most expensive single problem in human history."

Richard Scurry, former vice president of IBM, says:
" What you tend to hear about Y2K is that it's costing the big companies an arm and a leg and that the economy may therefore be damaged from their 'wasted activity.'  Obviously, there is also concern that some large businesses won't be ready.  As I see it, the problem is that the smaller companies won't be ready.  And if they aren't, and they encounter large problems, it will almost certainly cause a recession because they will either have to shut down until they are fixed or run well below their capacity...and these are the businesses that supply and purchase from the larger businesses."

Henry T. Blackaby author of Experiencing God notes:
"This moment is creating the occasion for God's people to seriously question whether the Y2K computer glitch may be a judgment of God.  Is God using this to drive His people an the nation back to Himself?"

S. C. Feldhahn a former Federal Reserve financial analyst and author of 'Y2K The Millennium Bug' admonishes:
"As Christians, we must take careful account of the credibility of those publicly commenting on Y2K and avoid the temptation to lean toward the more sensationalist statements.  We are supposed to be "the head and not the tail" (Deuteronomy 28:13) in our societies,..."

Mike Walker the Deputy Director of FEMA said:
While some failures may be minor annoyances, some may have more serious consequences...virtually all systems that rely on computers or electronic devises that refer to date and time may be affected by Y2K in one way or another.  This includes power, dispatch and communication systems, 911 systems, micro computers, and much more."

On July 15, 1998 Senator Robert "Bob" Bennett addressed the issue directly:

• Air Travel-  "I think the air traffic control system will work, but I expect we will probably be rationing flights.  I don't think it will work at the same level that it currently does."
• Banking and Finance-  "I believe the financial system will work (as a whole)...I think you will still be able to trade stocks on the New York Stock Exchange (but perhaps not on some foreign exchanges).  I think the banking system will work (but there will be) individual banks that will probably go bankrupt."
• Health Care-  "I am very concerned about the health care system.  There are health care entities that may very well go bankrupt because they cannot get (Medicare/Medicaid) reimbursement.  That is , in my view, one o the number-one issues...There are medical machines that will fail in ICU units."
• Municipal Governments/Welfare-  "I'm concerned about counties.  What's going to happen to the social fabric in this country if a county in a large, populous area cannot deliver welfare checks?  What kind of riots might occur?...That's an area where I have great concern."
• National Defense-  "Do I think the defense department will fall apart?  No.  But I'm glad we're not engaged in a major war when this hits, because the Defense Department will have serious challenges.  I think the satellites will work, but I'm not sure about all of the weapon systems here on the ground."
• Other Government Agencies-  "The government agencies that concern me the most (include the) IRS: serious serious trouble at IRS.  (Also) our experience (at the Federal Emergency Management Agency), has been, shall we say, less than reassuring...We have not found FEMA to be either as understanding of the problem or as forthcoming as they need to be with information."
• Power- "I believe the power grid (as a whole) will work, we will have brownouts and regional blackouts...in some areas of the country."
• Social Security-  "Of all the government agencies, I think the Social Security system is in the best shape and will be in a position to see to it that Social Security checks will go out."
• Telephones-  "The phone system, I think, will work.  But I wouldn't guarantee that you could get a dial tone in Taiwan.  So if you have a supplier in a foreign country that is not Y2K compliant, you'd better start looking around or alternatives and drafting some contingency plans."
• Water-  "I think water will b available in most municipalities, but (in some) the water system will break down.  And there could be serious serious difficulties in those communities."

What Do I Do Now?

Find out what your utilities are doing, ask your local government agencies if they believe they will be compliant on time, and find out if your church is doing anything.  There will be problems.  We don't know where, or how severe they will be, but there will be problems.  Our duty as Christians is to "See the future and prepare accordingly." as it says in Psalms.  We have an unprecedented opportunity. 

There are religious organizations who are well prepared.  There are also a tremendous number of churches that are not taking things seriously, and will be caught in the boat without a paddle. 

Consider this:  A single mother in your community who has three small children finds herself without power or water.  The company she works for was not Y2K compliant and their payroll system has crashed.  They are estimating a 90 day interruption in pay due to to lack of knowledgeable personnel to fix the problem (all the programers work for larger companies who can pay more).  Food prices in the city have skyrocketed because many of the suppliers for the local grocery stores were not compliant and their shipping and receiving systems have crashed.  Her children are hungry and cold (it's January after all), and she is in desperate need.  It is the church or individual that is prepared to meet her need that will have her ear. 

Have you heard the phrase used in missionary circles "fill the stomach and you win the heart?"  It is a very true statement.  We are to be the hands and feet of our Lord Jesus Christ.  What an opportunity to harvest for our King, if only we are prepared.  Now imagine that this woman is your next door neighbor or your coworker.  What a witness you would have if you were prepared to offer her a warm place to sleep and food for her family, whether in your own home, or at your church. 

I encourage everyone to prepare.  If nothing comes of Y2K, you can meet the needs of many struggling people, and your home or church could be registered with the Red Cross as a disaster relief area or temporary shelter.  God is inviting us to be a part of what He is doing.  We have been praying for revival for a decade.  We have begged for mercy for our nation during National Day of Prayer.  Now we have an opportunity to be part of the answer, what a shame to the name of Jesus Christ it would be if his children had heard the warning but not listened.  Will God be any less disappointed in us then He was with the Israelites when He sent prophet after prophet to the to tell them what He was about to do, and they said to themselves "Oh those right wing fanatics are just blowing things out of proportion."  Rather let Him find us ready and able to give His love to the world.

Where Do I Start?

The first step is to asses your situation. 

If your church is not involved, I suggest you talk to whomever your leaders are and find out what they know about Y2K, and encourage them to begin preparing in whatever way they can.  Time is short, perhaps it will take cooperation between churches, i.e. one working to purchase a generator for power, one developing a clean and safe drinking water plan, one stockpiling dry goods, and another setting aside financial resources.  Do what you can. 

Above all else, PRAY.  Ask God to help you to see what He is up to.  He does not ask us to be a part of His work without providing us a way to do it.  Y2K is not a cause for panic or moving to a wilderness compound.  On the contrary, we should stay in the field where we are needed the most, and praise God for this blessed opportunity.  Ask God to prepare hearts in advance, so that they will be ripe for harvest when the time for harvesting comes.  

Other good Y2K web sites can be found so for more Christian Y2K info see http://www.christiany2k.com/

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